India may have accumulated enough weapons-grade plutonium to produce between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads, while its assembled arsenal could have reached around 190 warheads, according to a new assessment by the US-based Federation of American Scientists (FAS). The figures are estimates based on open-source information and do not represent an official disclosure by the Indian government.
The FAS assessment estimates that India had produced roughly 730 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium, with an uncertainty range of about 170 kilograms, by the beginning of 2026. Using an assumed requirement of around four kilograms of plutonium per warhead, the researchers calculate a theoretical production capacity of 140 to 225 weapons. However, the report stresses that the calculation involves significant uncertainties, including the design and yield of India’s nuclear warheads.
The estimated stockpile of 190 warheads includes more than 160 associated with operational delivery systems, alongside additional warheads linked to newer missiles still being produced. The assessment says India continues to modernise its nuclear forces across land, air and sea-based platforms.
The significance of the report lies less in the precise number and more in the direction of India’s nuclear programme. New delivery systems and the expansion of the sea-based component indicate a continued effort to strengthen the credibility and survivability of India’s nuclear deterrent.
At the same time, the figures should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of an intention to dramatically expand the arsenal. India officially maintains a no-first-use nuclear policy and describes its posture in terms of credible minimum deterrence. The FAS itself notes that India is unlikely to manufacture substantially more warheads than its available delivery systems can accommodate.
The assessment nevertheless highlights a changing strategic environment. With China expanding its nuclear capabilities and Pakistan remaining a central security concern, India’s nuclear modernisation is increasingly shaped by the need to maintain deterrence across two strategic fronts.
The bigger story, therefore, is not simply whether India has 190 warheads. It is how rapidly its nuclear triad, delivery systems and supporting infrastructure are evolving—and what that means for the strategic balance in Asia.
