Brasília | October 5, 2026
Brazil’s presidential election is heading for a second round on October 25, with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Neither candidate secured the majority required to win in the first round. With nearly all votes counted, Bolsonaro finished ahead with about 47%, while Lula received around 44.9% of valid votes.
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Head to Runoff
The result sets up another contest between the Lula and Bolsonaro political camps, four years after Lula defeated Flávio’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, in the 2022 election.
The runoff will now bring voters who supported the other candidates into focus. Two candidates outside the top two, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, together received millions of votes but have said they will not endorse either contender.
Flávio Bolsonaro Outperformed Poll Expectations
One of the biggest surprises of the first round was Bolsonaro’s performance. Most pre-election polls had indicated that Lula would finish ahead in the first round, although a runoff was widely expected.
Instead, Bolsonaro secured a lead of roughly two percentage points. Analysts cited by Reuters suggested that some voters may have supported him as a way of expressing dissatisfaction with Lula, meaning part of his first-round support could represent protest voting.
Brazil’s Right Also Gains Ground in Congress
The presidential result was accompanied by stronger performances from right-wing parties in congressional races.
Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) was positioned to become the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies while also making gains in the Senate. Members of the Bolsonaro family also performed strongly, with former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro winning a Senate seat in the Federal District and Carlos Bolsonaro being elected to the Senate in Santa Catarina.
The congressional balance will be significant for the next government because a stronger conservative presence could influence the ability of either presidential candidate to advance legislation.
What Comes Next
The runoff campaign will now focus on winning support from voters who backed other candidates in the first round.
The election is taking place amid concerns over crime, living costs, economic policy and Brazil’s relationship with the United States. The outcome will also have implications for issues including environmental policy and the direction of Latin America’s largest economy.
