China’s robust export performance and policy easing are bolstering global markets as of February 17, 2026, amid forecasts of 4.8% GDP growth outperforming consensus estimates. Surging shipments to emerging markets and high-tech sectors offset property sector drags, with Goldman Sachs highlighting a current account surplus rising to 4.2% of GDP.
Key Economic Drivers
Exports grew around 8% in real terms last year despite U.S. tariffs, fueled by competitive pricing and dominance in critical minerals like rare earths. Analysts expect monetary easing, including rate cuts and fiscal deficits, to support manufacturing while consumption lags due to deleveraging households. Citi maintains a 4.7% growth projection with measured stimulus like RMB 1 trillion extra spending.
Market Implications
Global trade faces fragmentation as supply chains shift to Southeast Asia and India, yet China’s quality upgrades help retain market share against EU and Japan benchmarks. UBS forecasts a modest slowdown to 4.5% GDP growth with decelerating exports, urging focus on rebalancing via AI, energy, and fiscal measures. Beijing eyes a 4.5-5% official target, prioritizing resilience over rapid expansion.
