IMD Tracks Southwest Monsoon Progress Amid Heatwave and Extreme Weather Concerns
The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala around June 2–3, close to its normal onset timeline, even as the Centre and weather agencies urged states to remain cautious over possible extreme weather events, flooding risks and uneven rainfall patterns during the upcoming season.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon advancement after pre-monsoon activity intensified across parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and southern peninsula. Weather models have also pointed toward gradual strengthening of monsoon currents over the Andaman and Nicobar region before mainland entry.
Centre Flags Climate and Disaster Risks
Senior officials have reportedly asked state governments and disaster management authorities to remain alert for possible flash floods, landslides, urban flooding and extreme rainfall episodes during the monsoon period.
The caution comes at a time when India is simultaneously witnessing severe heatwave conditions across northern and central regions while southern coastal belts prepare for monsoon onset.
Authorities are particularly monitoring vulnerable regions including Kerala, Karnataka, Northeast India, Himalayan states and flood-prone urban clusters where heavy rainfall activity could intensify rapidly after onset.
IMD Predicts Below-Normal Seasonal Rainfall
While the monsoon onset itself is expected around the usual period, the IMD has already projected that India may receive below-normal seasonal rainfall this year, estimated at nearly 92 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
Meteorologists attribute the concern largely to the possible emergence of El Niño conditions later in the season — a climate pattern historically linked to weaker monsoon performance and rising temperatures across India.
The IMD stated that although neutral Pacific conditions currently exist, climate models indicate a gradual shift toward El Niño during the second half of the southwest monsoon.
Heatwave Conditions Continue Across North India
Even as monsoon discussions dominate weather forecasts, several northern states continue to battle severe heatwave conditions.
The IMD has warned that parts of Northwest and Central India may continue facing heatwave to severe heatwave conditions over the next few days, with temperatures remaining dangerously high across Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and adjoining regions.
Weather experts warn that delayed rainfall distribution or weak monsoon phases could intensify pressure on agriculture, reservoirs and electricity demand during peak summer months.
Agriculture and Economy Closely Linked to Monsoon
India’s southwest monsoon remains critical to the country’s economy, especially for agriculture, water storage, hydropower generation and rural consumption.
Nearly 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall is received during the June-to-September monsoon season, directly influencing kharif crop sowing and food supply chains.
A weak or uneven monsoon could therefore impact inflation, food prices and rural incomes in the months ahead.
States Begin Preparations
Several state governments have already begun reviewing preparedness measures involving flood control systems, reservoir management, emergency response units and health infrastructure ahead of the monsoon season.
Officials have also advised citizens in coastal and landslide-prone regions to closely follow weather advisories and avoid unnecessary travel during periods of intense rainfall.
As India prepares for another monsoon season under uncertain climate conditions, authorities appear increasingly aware that the challenge this year may not simply be rainfall — but managing the growing unpredictability surrounding it.
