Despite President Donald Trump’s repeated assertions of a booming “golden age” for the US economy, polls show widespread public doubt as 2026 midterms approach, with many Americans citing persistent inflation and uneven growth. A Reuters/Ipsos survey reveals only 38% believe the economy is “strong,” down from 45% in January.
Key Economic Disputes
Trump’s claims face scrutiny across multiple metrics:
Inflation: Trump stated “inflation is stopped,” but CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, with core inflation at 2.6% over six months—stable but not halted. Grocery prices continue climbing despite White House narratives.
GDP Growth: Q4 2025 showed 4.3% annualized growth, solid but not record-breaking. Pre-COVID quarters hit 5-6%; Trump’s “$18 trillion investments” figure inflates vague pledges, with verified commitments closer to $9.7 trillion.
Trade Deficit: Claims of “77% slashed monthly trade deficit” cherry-pick data from Trump’s first full month versus shutdown-affected periods. Overall deficit has widened since inauguration.
Employment Reality Check
Unemployment ticked up to 4.3% in January 2026 from 3.9% at inauguration. Employment-population ratio dipped slightly despite population growth. Trump’s “more employed than ever” omits context of natural workforce expansion.
Tariff Impact Debated
Trump credits tariffs for economic “miracle,” but Q3-Q4 2025 import declines boosted GDP figures artificially. Businesses/consumers—not China—bear tariff costs, per economists. Atlanta Fed revised growth projections downward multiple times.
Voter Sentiment
Midterm anxiety compounds skepticism: 52% disapprove of economic handling per Reuters. Democrats highlight Biden-era growth outpacing 2025; independents cite grocery/sticker shock despite cooling headline inflation.
