India’s coal consumption is set to more than double over the next 25 years, peaking at 2.62 billion metric tons by 2050 under current policies, before falling sharply as the nation accelerates its shift to cleaner energy sources. This projection from government think tank NITI Aayog balances the country’s pressing energy needs with its net-zero emissions goal by 2070.
Peak and Plateau in Coal Use
Current coal consumption stands at around 1.26 billion metric tons annually, powering nearly three-quarters of India’s electricity generation. The report forecasts this rising to 2.62 billion tons by mid-century in a business-as-usual scenario, driven by industrial growth in steel, cement, and power sectors amid surging electricity demand. Even by 2070, demand would stabilise at a high 1.80 billion tons, mostly for hard-to-abate industries requiring carbon capture technologies.
Under the net-zero pathway, coal peaks lower at 1.83 billion tons in 2050, then plummets to just 161 million tons by 2070, with residual use confined to emissions-intensive processes.
Coal’s Role in Energy Security and Transition
Coal remains essential short-term to back up expanding solar and wind capacity, provide baseload power, and stabilise the grid. India plans to add coal power capacity to 307 GW by 2034–35 from 212 GW today, meeting forecast demand while renewables scale. Domestic production hit a record 1.047 billion tons in FY25, up nearly 5%, with FY26 targeting 1.15 billion tons to cover over 80% of needs and reduce imports.
The report stresses coal’s interim value alongside investments in battery storage, nuclear expansion, grid upgrades, and cheaper clean tech to enable the pivot.
Balancing Growth and Sustainability
As the world’s second-largest coal consumer after China, India’s strategy prioritises energy security for economic expansion while committing to decarbonisation. Coal plants may run less frequently, serving peak demand or emergencies, as non-fossil sources reach 57% of capacity by 2030. Recent data shows coal power dipping in 2025 amid clean energy records, hinting at early transition signals.
