Ceasefire holding but nerves still high
The two‑week ceasefire between Iran and the United States, centred on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is holding for now, with both sides refraining from major new strikes as the initial 48‑hour truce window passes into its second week. However, diplomats and regional capitals are treating the lull as a fragile pause rather than a lasting peace, with the original U.S. “final deadline” rhetoric underscoring that Washington has not ruled out resuming attacks if Iran backslides on commitments.
Oil and shipping see early relief
The return of limited tanker traffic through Hormuz and the formal ceasefire signal have triggered a sharp drop in crude prices, with Brent hovering near the low‑90s per barrel after earlier spiking above $100 during the peak of the war. Global shippers are cautiously re‑routing more vessels toward the Strait, though many still prefer Red‑Sea‑by‑Suez or Cape‑of‑Good‑Hope detours until the security and fee‑regime arrangements are clearer.
Iran–Oman toll‑fee plan under scrutiny
Iran and Oman are reportedly moving ahead with a plan to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran eyeing revenue for war‑reconstruction projects and Muscat seen as a partner in monetizing the chokepoint. The idea of formal tolls runs counter to the principle of free passage in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), prompting legal and political pushback from major maritime powers, even as some energy‑importers quietly accept that a modest fee may be the price of restored flow.
Israel–Iran shadow‑front continues
Despite the U.S.–Iran truce, the Israel–Iran shadow war is continuing, with reports of Iranian‑backed groups in Syria and the Gulf conducting smaller‑scale missile and drone probes, while Israel executes targeted strikes on weapon‑depot networks in Iraq and Yemen. Israeli officials have warned that Iran uses U.S. dialogues as cover for re‑armament, while Iranian hard‑liners in the IRGC voice scepticism that the ceasefire will translate into a durable easing of pressure.
Markets and governments recalibrate
Financial markets are reacting positively to the ceasefire‑driven slump in oil prices, with shares in energy‑exporters moderating and Indian equity benchmarks sustaining gains as the near‑term inflation and tariff‑risk premium recedes. Governments in the Gulf, India, Japan, and the EU are now debating whether to lock in the recovery by supporting a broader maritime‑security framework for Hormuz, including joint patrols or a UN‑backed safe‑passage corridor, but consensus remains thin as geopolitical mistrust lingers.
