Singapore, February 24, 2026 – Brent crude hovered below $71 per barrel near a seven-month peak as traders balance escalating US-Iran tensions against Thursday’s Geneva nuclear talks, compounded by President Trump’s tariff policy whiplash post-Supreme Court ruling.
Geopolitical Flashpoint Fuels Rally
The third round of indirect negotiations—US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner facing Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi via Omani mediation—centers on Tehran’s uranium enrichment post-“Midnight Hammer” strike. Trump demands zero enrichment for sanction relief; Iran insists on sovereign rights while preparing “all scenarios,” with two US carrier groups deployed nearby.
Weekly Brent gains hit 3%, WTI near $66, as failure risks supply disruptions amid 5% global spare capacity.
Trade Volatility Caps Gains
Supreme Court’s IEEPA tariff rejection spurred Trump’s 10-15% Section 122 replacements (exempting pharma/ag), denting demand outlooks and economic growth. OPEC+ adherence provides floor support.
India Faces Import Squeeze
85% Middle East-dependent, New Delhi braces for $10-15/bbl spikes inflating ₹2 lakh crore annual bills and current account strains. Diplomacy success eases inflation; breakdown pushes $90+ Brent, testing RBI buffers amid robust growth.
Oil’s fate hinges on Geneva—deal de-escalates, deadlock ignites Middle East risks.
