The Indian rupee hit a record low of 92.3025 against the dollar on March 4, 2026, before closing at 92.15, pressured by Brent crude nearing $84/barrel amid Hormuz blockade fears.
Tentative Recovery Signals
Non-deliverable forwards point to opening at 92.10-92.12 today, buoyed by dollar retreat and equity rebound hints, though oil volatility dominates. Down 1.3% in two days, rupee tracks crude—Brent up 15% weekly near $85 high.
Bankers warn Middle East war sustains downside; RBI eyed for intervention post sharp slide.
RBI’s Balancing Act
Central bank smoothed volatility but allows oil-driven moves; forecasts eye 93-94 if crude stays elevated, widening import bill for net importer India. Diversified sourcing from Russia/US cushions, with 25-day reserves precluding hikes.
War Context Pressures
US sub sank IRIS Dena (80+ dead); F-35 downed Yak-130; Khamenei funeral delayed amid strikes killing 1,045; 37 ships/1,109 sailors trapped. MEA control room, Modi’s diplomacy active.
