Russia cautioned on March 1, 2026, that closing the Strait of Hormuz—carrying 20-30% of global oil—would trigger severe supply disruptions, spiking prices and risking economic shocks worldwide.
Global Energy Impact
A shutdown could lock 20% of LNG exports in the Gulf, halt crude from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran (13 million bpd), and disrupt consumer goods shipping, pushing oil into triple digits. Asian markets, major importers, face the sharpest shocks alongside inflation and recessions in vulnerable economies.
Geopolitical Realities
Iran relies on the strait for 90% of its crude exports, making closure self-damaging despite threats amid US-Israel strikes. Insurance withdrawals and stranded tankers already create de facto curbs, amplifying fears without full blockade.
