As Iran slams shut the Strait of Hormuz—choking 20 million barrels/day or 20% of global oil flows—Saudi Arabia’s 1,200-km East-West Pipeline and UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah line emerge as pivotal bypasses, potentially rerouting up to 7 million bpd and blunting Tehran’s economic warfare.
Iran’s Economic Weapon vs. Gulf Counterplay
Tehran’s Hormuz blockade aims to spike US gasoline prices, pressuring President Trump to end the “war of choice” post-Khamenei’s killing; Brent topped $100 briefly Sunday. Saudi Aramco loads VLCCs at Yanbu/Red Sea (3 million bpd capacity, peaked 7 million in 2019), while UAE’s 1.5-2 million bpd pipeline feeds Fujairah, drawing 25 supertankers despite doubled freight rates.
High Stakes and Vulnerabilities
These 45-year-old lifelines—built for Hormuz threats—offer temporary cushions but face IRGC drone risks, Yemen Houthi attacks, and port overloads; Aramco shuttered Ras Tanura refinery after a strike. Success hinges on swift war end, unscathed infrastructure, and tanker flows—enormous Trump bets amid regional tightrope for Riyadh/Abu Dhabi balancing US aid vs. Iran ties.
Global Market Lifeline Amid Crisis
Pipelines delay price surges (below 2008/2022 inflation-adjusted peaks) but can’t replace Hormuz long-term; Iraq cuts output on full tanks, Qatar halts LNG. Saudi/UAE diversions aid Trump’s “cancer removal” but risk retaliation, echoing WWII supply battles.
