Exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and the Union Territory of Puducherry have begun to roll in, offering early‑stage seat‑share sketches before the official results on May 4. Broadly, the “poll‑of‑polls” and individual surveys point to a strong BJP‑led edge in Bengal and Assam, a Congress‑led UDF comeback in Kerala, and a tightly‑contested but still hung‑like picture in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, with the DMK–Congress–Left front ahead in the south but not yet decisively secure.
West Bengal: BJP seen on top, but seat range still wide
In West Bengal, early exit‑poll aggregations suggest the BJP‑led NDA could be in the 150–175‑seat range in the 294‑seat house, putting Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the 118–138‑seat bracket. The Congress and allies are projected to win only a handful of seats, typically 2–6, underscoring how the choice is mostly between TMC and BJP. The BJP’s narrative of a “change” wave in eastern and southern Bengal appears to be reflected in the numbers, but the spread between polls still leaves room for a surprise, especially if partial‑phase‑2 turnout data or local‑level corrections deviate from assumptions.
Tamil Nadu: DMK front ahead, Vijay‑linked TVK punch noted
Most exit polls project the DMK–Congress–Left front to be the largest bloc in Tamil Nadu, though not always with a clear majority on its own. The AIADMK‑led quasi‑Third Front and the new Vijay‑linked TVK camp are seen eating into the margins of both pre‑peal, with TVK‑linked surveys forecasting a much stronger sweep in some seat‑level maps. Overall, the early numbers do not indicate a clear collapse of the DMK alliance, but they do flag greater fragmentation in the anti‑DMK space, which could push Tamil Nadu toward a tighter, potentially hung‑house‑like count, even if the ruling front ends up just short of 130 seats.
Assam, Kerala, Puducherry: NDA and UDF ahead
- In Assam, multiple polls point to a decisive NDA (BJP‑led) win, with projections of the alliance in the majority range and the Congress‑led opposition in the low‑to‑mid‑twenties of seats. The tribal‑centric parties and small outfits are expected to form a thin but pivotal third‑force cluster.
- In Kerala, the Congress‑led UDF is projected to overtake the ruling LDF, with the UDF in the high‑50s to low‑60s of seats and the LDF roughly in the mid‑40s, depending on the survey. The NDP‑led bloc is forecast to remain in the 10–20‑seat band, again holding swing‑house power in theory.
- In Puducherry, the BJP‑led NDA (NRC+) is generally seen ahead of the Congress‑led Cong+ alliance, with seat‑ranges such as 16–20 to NDA versus 6–8 to Congress, and the rest going to smaller players.
Key trends and caveats
Across all five states and the UT, exit polls underline a decline of the old‑school “third‑force” in Bengal, a rise of Vijay‑linked new‑age politics in Tamil Nadu, and an entrenched bipolar‑plus‑smaller‑players structure in Assam, Kerala and Puducherry. Yet, the inherent margin‑of‑error in exit‑poll methodology, the sensitivity to voter‑turnout differences between urban and rural areas, and partial‑phase‑2 entry in Bengal all mean that the final result could still fall significantly outside the current ranges, especially in the closely‑fought southern states.
