Iran clarified the Strait of Hormuz remains closed only to US, Israeli, and European vessels, offering relief to India as 37 trapped ships carrying 1,109 sailors await passage after six days of blockade fears.
Selective Blockade Eases Oil Panic
IRGC’s VHF warnings targeted “enemy shipping,” exempting friendly nations per Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi amid US sub sinking IRIS Dena (80+ dead) and F-35 Yak-130 kill over Tehran. Tankers from Russia, China, India now greenlit, slashing Brent crude from $84 peak as 150 vessels queued.
India’s 40-50% Gulf imports breathe easier; 25-day reserves held firm sans price hikes despite rupee at 92.10.
Strategic Calculations Shift
Tehran balances retaliation—True Promise IV hit US bases, Saudi embassy—against economic suicide from total closure carrying 20% global oil. Khamenei funeral delayed, Mojtaba succession amid 1,045 dead.
Trump offers US tanker escorts; Putin/Gulf leaders push de-escalation.
India’s Masterstroke
Modi’s pre-war diplomacy with Oman/Kuwait/Qatar, Russia’s full-supply pledge, and diversification (US/Australia/Norway) neutralized threats. MEA control room coordinates safe passage; Nepal polls, Arsenal PL surge secondary as energy secured.
