India’s refiners are snapping up millions of barrels of immediate Russian crude amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, securing energy needs through the volatile Strait of Hormuz.
Supply Crunch Triggers Shift
Iranian strikes and regional tensions have choked Middle East oil flows, with 40% of India’s imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving strategic reserves at just 25 days of demand. State-owned refiners like Indian Oil Corporation, HPCL, and MRPL have procured around 20 million barrels of prompt Russian oil from traders since the escalation, tapping vessels floating off India’s coast. This marks a reversal from January’s cutbacks, driven by U.S. pressure that dropped Russia’s share to 21.2% before rebounding to 30% in February.
U.S. Waiver Enables Deals
India sought and received a 30-day emergency window from the Trump administration to boost Russian imports, offsetting Middle East losses without triggering 25% tariffs tied to a recent trade deal. Russian Urals crude now trades at a $4-5 premium over Brent for March-April deliveries, narrowing the post-2022 discount as sellers gain leverage. Private giant Reliance Industries also pursued these cargoes, per trade sources.
Russia’s Readiness and India’s Contingencies
Moscow stands prepared to divert 9.5 million barrels of loitering crude to India, maintaining its top supplier status amid Saudi Arabia’s export ramp-up. Government and refiners held weekend meetings for contingency plans, prioritizing Russian volumes if Hormuz disruptions drag on. While U.S., Indian oil firms, and ministries stayed silent, this pivot underscores India’s pragmatic energy security amid geopolitical flux.
