US President Donald Trump reportedly told G7 leaders on March 12, 2026, that Iran is “about to surrender,” only for Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to issue a defiant first statement 24 hours later, threatening continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Timeline of Contrasting Messages
Trump’s optimistic assessment came amid Operation Epic Fury airstrikes, predicting regime collapse after the US-Israel killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Within a day, state media broadcast Khamenei’s pledge to avenge “martyrs,” block oil flows, and target American bases if attacks persist.
New Leader’s Hardline Stance
Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain leader and selected by the Assembly of Experts on March 8, rejected capitulation in his inaugural address read on IRGC-controlled TV. He framed the strait as a “strategic tool,” escalating Gulf tensions despite Trump’s dismissal of oil price spikes as economically beneficial.
Global Stakes Rise
The exchange underscores a leadership transition amid war, with no signs of internal revolt or IRGC defections, complicating Western hopes for rapid resolution.
