Strategic Choices in a High-Risk Scenario
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets, handles nearly 20% of the world’s oil trade. For India, which imports over 80% of its crude oil, any disruption in this region could pose a serious energy and economic challenge.
If the Strait were to shut down due to escalating geopolitical tensions, India would need to quickly pivot to alternative strategies to ensure energy security and supply continuity.
Diversifying Oil Supply Routes
One immediate option is to increase imports from non-Gulf suppliers such as Russia, the United States, and countries in Africa and Latin America. India has already diversified part of its oil basket in recent years, and this flexibility could act as a buffer in times of crisis.
Shipping routes, however, may become longer and more expensive, impacting fuel prices domestically.
Strategic Petroleum Reserves
India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) would play a crucial role in the short term. These reserves are designed to provide emergency supply for several days, helping stabilise the market while alternative arrangements are made.
Expanding and efficiently managing these reserves will be critical in such scenarios.
Accelerating Energy Transition
A Hormuz disruption could also accelerate India’s push towards renewable energy sources. Solar, wind, and green hydrogen offer long-term solutions that reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.
While these cannot immediately replace oil, they can significantly reduce vulnerability over time.
Managing Domestic Demand
Another key strategy would be demand-side management — encouraging energy efficiency, optimising fuel use, and promoting public transport and electric mobility to reduce overall consumption.
Diplomatic and Strategic Balance
India would also rely on its policy of balanced diplomacy, maintaining ties with multiple global players to secure uninterrupted supply chains.
The Bigger Picture
The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz highlights a critical reality — energy security is no longer just about supply, but about resilience, diversification, and preparedness.
For India, the challenge is not just to respond, but to anticipate — building systems that ensure stability even in the face of global uncertainty.
