Kerala Assembly Election 2026 has thrown up an early‑counting upset as at least a dozen sitting ministers in the CPI(M)‑led LDF cabinet, including Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, are trailing in their respective constituencies. The “Ministers Trailing” scenario has become one of the day’s most talked‑about developments, signalling a strong anti‑incumbency‑plus‑UDF‑wave narrative in the state’s closely fought, three‑front contest.
How many ministers are trailing and where
Reports from early counting rounds indicate that 12 ministers are currently in the losing position as the votes in all 140 Assembly seats are tallied. The list of trailing LDF ministers includes:
Pinarayi Vijayan (Dharmadam)
Roshy Augustine (Idukki)
R. Bindu (Irinjalakuda)
V. N. Vasavan (Ettumanoor)
K. B. Ganesh Kumar (Pathanapuram)
P. Rajeev (Kalamassery)
O. R. Kelu (Mananthavady)
V. Sivankutty (Nemom)
Veena George (Aranmula)
V. Abdurahiman (Tirur)
J. Chinchurani (Chadayamangalam)
A. K. Saseendran (Elathur)
M. B. Rajesh (Thrithala)
In Dharmadam, Vijayan’s personal bastion, Congress‑UDF candidate V. P. Abdul Rasheed was reported to be leading by several hundred votes in the early rounds, underscoring how the Congress‑led alliance is making inroads into the Chief Minister’s home‑turf and the wider northern belt.
What the “ministers trailing” trend means
The fact that so many senior LDF faces are trailing reinforces the impression that the UDF‑Congress campaign has successfully consolidated the anti‑incumbency‑plus‑governance‑grievance sentiment, particularly in semi‑urban and mid‑tier constituencies. Initial‑trend data showed UDF ahead in about 90 seats, LDF in around 45, and NDA‑BJP in roughly five seats, which aligns with the narrative of a UDF‑leaning tide cutting into the CM and several key ministers.
For the BJP‑led NDA, the focus is on its own strongholds and gateway‑seats such as Nemom (where Rajeev Chandrasekhar showed an early lead) and Manjeshwar, where the party is banking on a breakthrough narrative even as the major story in the state revolves around the UDF‑LDF contest.
Implications for Kerala government formation
The “ministers trailing” pattern complicates the LDF’s prospects of a third consecutive term and strengthens the Congress‑UDF’s claim that it is heading for a majority‑plus mandate, with some reports suggesting UDF could cross the 70–80‑seat band. The eventual outcome in high‑profile seats such as Dharmadam, Nemom, and Kalamassery will determine not only the personal fates of Vijayan and other ministerial leaders, but also the party‑wise arithmetic that will shape the next government in Thiruvananthapuram.
If the UDF sustains its lead, it could open the door to a Congress‑lead government with a senior Congress leader becoming Chief Minister, while the LDF would be pushed into opposition for the first time after a decade in power. The ministers‑trailing phase, therefore, is not just a counting‑day drama but a political marker of how deeply the 2026 verdict might reconfigure Kerala’s power structure.
