US-Israel strikes on Iran, Khamenei’s death, and Gulf retaliations like Dubai Airport hits have disrupted key routes, raising logistics and insurance worries for Indian exporters reliant on Red Sea and Hormuz paths.
Logistics Disruptions
FIEO warns of 15-20 day delays via Cape of Good Hope reroutes for US/Europe shipments, surging freight rates and marine premiums as air paths alter post-Qatar Al Udeid and UAE strikes. Exporters face immediate hits on perishables, electronics amid 19,000+ flight cancellations stranding PV Sindhu.
Energy and Trade Impact
Brent crude at $70-76/barrel threatens India’s 85% oil imports via Gulf; limited Iran trade (rice, petrochemicals) stalls with payments uncertain, while Israel high-tech inflows risk investor flight. CRISIL flags profit erosion if crisis prolongs; firms eye Russia pivot, reserves.
Industry Response
India urges restraint, no immediate shortages expected but prolonged Hormuz threats could inflate inflation, power costs; diversification and renewables gain urgency.
